Tides that could break modern-day records are expected to flood Carlsbad beaches, coastal roads and low-lying property through Thursday, Oct. 29, the National Weather Service warned.
The coastal flood warning covers all of San Diego and Orange counties and remains in effect until 1 p.m. Thursday. The greatest flooding risk falls during late-morning high tides each day, when water levels could reach 7.5 to 8 feet above baseline, according to the weather service.
Observed tides are running 1.5 to 1.7 feet above astronomical predictions, the agency said. The weather service expects "significant coastal flooding" that could inundate low-lying homes, businesses and critical infrastructure, with road closures and shoreline erosion during morning hours.
The City of Carlsbad warned residents on X on Sunday, Oct. 25, to stay off beaches, seawalls and jetties during high tides and to never drive through flooded roads or around closure signs.
Carlsbad's coast is already damaged. Parts of Carlsbad State Beach have washed away, forcing the closure of the Tamarack day-use parking lot to vehicles, the Los Angeles Times reported. Fox 5 San Diego reported that Tamarack State Beach has been one of the hardest-hit areas in the county after Tropical Storm Rachel earlier in October worsened existing erosion.
Areas with prior damage face heightened risk. Todd Hall, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service office in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times that additional flooding "exacerbates the issue because the damage is already there."
Philip Gonsalves, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego, told the Los Angeles Times the flooding could match earlier rounds driven by hurricane remnants, even though the conditions differ. Unlike recent episodes fueled by powerful tropical storm swells, the current threat comes from exceptionally high tides alone.
Researchers attribute the elevated water levels to overlapping factors: peaks in the 18.6-year lunar node and 4.4-year lunar perigee tidal cycles, record-warm ocean temperatures off the California coast, El Niño conditions and long-term sea-level rise, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Metrolink suspended Orange County Line service between the Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo and Oceanside stations starting Monday, Oct. 26, because of the coastal flooding threat, Fox 5 reported. Riders can check Metrolink's website for service updates.
The city's emergency services page lists limited sandbag supplies at three fire stations: Fire Station 3 at 3465 Trailblazer Way, Fire Station 4 at 6885 Batiquitos Drive and Fire Station 6 at 7201 Rancho Santa Fe Road. Supplies are self-serve and limited to 10 bags per household with proof of Carlsbad residency. The page was last updated Oct. 9, so availability may have changed.
For after-hours flooding emergencies, residents can call 442-339-2197. For life-threatening emergencies, call 911.
Higher king tides are forecast around Thanksgiving and Christmas, with approximately 7-foot astronomical tides expected Nov. 24-26 and Dec. 23-25, according to the Los Angeles Times.
