The 108-year-old Lake Hodges Dam in northeastern San Diego County is the worst-rated dam in California, and a repair plan won't be finished for years.
That's the finding of a state auditor's report published Oct. 13, which flagged 57 dams statewide in poor or unsatisfactory condition. Lake Hodges is the only one of more than 1,200 state-monitored dams labeled "unsatisfactory," a rating that means it requires immediate or emergency action.
The timing matters. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported greater than an 83% chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027, according to The Coronado News. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency Sept. 21 to prepare for the storm season.
San Diego County residents downstream of the dam have reason to worry. State regulators said there is an "extremely high" downstream hazard where a breach is "expected to cause considerable loss of human life" in an area where more than 1,000 people live, as first reported by inewsource. The communities most at risk sit along the San Dieguito River corridor, including Rancho Santa Fe and Fairbanks Ranch.
Why the dam is failing
A 2022 inspection found concrete deterioration, cracks and other structural problems at the dam, which was built in 1918, according to inewsource. The California Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD) determined the entire structure is seismically unstable.
Erik Malvic, a DSOD manager, said inspections showed "advanced deterioration putting the dam in an unacceptable condition for normal operating conditions," according to inewsource reporting published in May.
To reduce flood risk, the city of San Diego has released about 13.5 billion gallons of water from the reservoir over the past four years. The state set a recommended water level of 280 feet, which is 35 feet below the spillway.
A fix that keeps slipping
The city had planned to build a replacement dam downstream by 2029 at an estimated cost of $275 million. But the price tag ballooned to between $474 million and $697 million, and the San Diego County Water Authority pulled its funding support, inewsource reported. The city's interim plan is to lower the spillway to 280 feet, work that could cost up to $50 million and might not be done until 2035.
Rhonda Farrar, president of the advocacy group Friends of Lake Hodges, has pushed for a full replacement. Brian Caldwell, a founding board member of the same group, told ABC 10News he fears El Niño rains will overwhelm the city's ability to keep water levels in check.
"We have this El Niño forecast for unprecedented rainfall, which is probably going to mean that the rate of water coming into the reservoir is going to exceed the rate it can be drawn down," Caldwell said.
El Niño and the flood question
Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told inewsource that the risks of flooding are "greater than average this winter because of El Niño and global warming." Atmospheric river storms during El Niño tend to be wetter, and saturated soil from earlier rains can't absorb the runoff.
Assemblymember Darshana Patel, who represents the Lake Hodges area, said Newsom's emergency proclamation does not provide funding for projects like Lake Hodges but gives the state "additional tools to prepare for flooding and support local governments ahead of severe weather." Neither the city nor the state placed the dam on a priority list for repairs, according to inewsource.
Jennifer McBride, a supervising public information officer for the city of San Diego, said the city would continue monitoring reservoir levels and making controlled releases if needed.
What it means for Carlsbad
While Carlsbad does not sit in the Lake Hodges dam's downstream flood path along the San Dieguito River, the broader El Niño threat is already hitting close to home. Tropical Storm Rachel dropped 1.75 inches of rain on Carlsbad on Oct. 11, flooding parts of Highway 101, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. California State Parks is working to repair the Tamarack parking lot after summer swells and high tides damaged the shoreline, according to the governor's office.
Carlsbad has launched an online preparedness page for El Niño, as we reported Nov. 5.
The state auditor estimated that repairing all of California's substandard dams could cost about $28 billion. The city of San Diego said it would release more details about a long-term plan for Lake Hodges in 2027.
