Tropical Storm Rachel could bring coastal flooding, heavy rain and 30 mph wind gusts to Carlsbad late Saturday, Oct. 10, through early Sunday afternoon.

The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch for all of San Diego County on Saturday. It is the first tropical storm watch in Southern California since Hurricane Hilary in 2023, Patch reported.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, the National Weather Service said Rachel was about 440 miles south of San Mateo Point, moving north-northeast at 30 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall south of the U.S.-Mexico border Saturday evening.

The heaviest rain and strongest winds are forecast for late Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon.

Carlsbad and other coastal communities could see gusts around 30 mph, though stronger tropical storm-force gusts remain possible. The weather service noted a slight chance Rachel could track farther north, bringing stronger winds than currently forecast.

The weather service forecasts 0.5 to 1.25 inches of rain for coastal areas and valleys, with peak rainfall rates of 0.50 to 0.60 inches per hour. A flood watch covers all of San Diego County. Flooding could affect roads, underpasses and low-lying areas.

Coastal flooding confidence is high, according to the weather service. Waves could reach 6 to 9 feet on Sunday, and tides exceeding 7 feet could worsen flooding and accelerate beach erosion. Coastal flood advisories may extend into Tuesday, Oct. 13.

Carlsbad has already declared a state of emergency for sections of Carlsbad Boulevard and shuttered the Tamarack State Beach parking lot, Fox 5 San Diego reported Friday, Oct. 9. As we reported Friday, the city had already begun emergency bluff work on the south end of the boulevard.

Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University, told Fox 5 San Diego that tropical storms are hitting the coast more frequently. "These are not going to be rare events anymore," Abbott said in the Friday interview.

The winds could bring down tree limbs, damage unsecured outdoor structures and cause scattered power outages. SDG&E Chief Operating and Safety Officer Kevin Geraghty said the utility is monitoring conditions around the clock and positioning crews ahead of the storm, according to Times of San Diego.

The City of Carlsbad posted a storm preparedness advisory on Friday, Oct. 9, reminding residents to set up sandbags if their property is prone to flooding. The city provides a limited number of sandbags to residents. County sandbag locations are listed at alertsandiego.org/en-us/recovery/sandbags.html.

Residents can report flooding, road issues or blocked storm drains by calling 442-339-2197, available 24 hours a day. Anyone who encounters a downed power line should assume it is energized and call 911 and SDG&E at 1-800-411-7343.

The next weather service update was expected around 8 p.m. Saturday. Residents should monitor alerts at weather.gov and through NWS San Diego.